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Thursday, November 19, 2009

The world's largest – had risen more strongly than expected in October

World stock markets rose strongly again today to record highs for the year, buoyed by rising optimism about the world economy.The price of gold and other key commodities also rose, with the precious metal continuing its recent surge by reaching a new all-time high of $1,130 (£670) an ounce.Stock markets were boosted by news that retail sales in the US economy – the world's largest – had risen more strongly than expected in October, raising hopes that the American consumer may be spending again in spite of record high unemployment.In London the FTSE 100 of leading shares strengthened for the fourth consecutive day to close at a 14-month high of 5,382.7, up 86 points or 1.63%. The market rose by almost 3% last week alone and is now up 53% from the six-year low it set in March. Tonight's close was its highest point since 12 September – the Friday before the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank."Now that we have broken through the 5,300 level, a lot of investors are thinking we can keep going higher and higher. A lot of people are jumping back on to the recovery bandwagon," said Joshua Raymond, strategist at City Index.Today'srise was driven by big rises in mining and energy stocks, which have little connection with the British economy, but are listed in London and rise and fall in line with oil and metal prices.Shares in Rio Tinto, Xstrata, Randgold Resources and Antofagasta were up by between 4.3% and 6%. BP and Shell also rose, as did BG Group.

They were boosted by a $2 a barrel rise in oil prices to nearly $79 a barrel for US light crude while copper hit a 13-1/2-month high, boosting Antofagasta stock in particular.The prices of metals and oil were also supported by the weakening dollar, in which they are priced. As a result of the falling greenback, the pound rose to nearly $1.68 and also went above €1.12 to the euro.As the FTSE closed, shares in the Dow Jones industrial average on Wall Street were also up strongly by 146 points at 1041, and received an extra push from a bigger-than-expected, 1.4% month increase in retail sales.

Analysts cautioned, however, that the figures were mainly strong because of car sales being supported by the government's "cash for clunkers" scrappage scheme, which has just ended. However, underlying sales on non-car items were subdued, analysts said. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the US economy and is regarded as a key measurement for gauging how strong the global recovery will be, especially as many factories in Asia are dependent on selling goods to Americans.

"The October retail sales numbers were a very mixed bag, but signal that despite the consumer's gloomy mood, spending is improving," said Nigel Gault, chief US economist at IHS Global Insight.

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